KBO Mini Model — September 11, 2026

The KBO mini model is live for 2026-09-11. Below is the mini board plus the plays our model likes most tonight.

Every projection is evaluated across multiple data points — recent performance, matchup history, season form, batting splits, pitcher history, projection, rating, and spread — depending on the prop being evaluated.

Today's Favorites

Kim Do-yeong — OVER 6.5 Fantasy — 67.39%

Kim Do-yeong brings one of the strongest batter signals on tonight's board.

He's hit at 60% L5, 60% L10, 67% L15, and 70% L20, with a strong 76% H2H hit rate against KT and a 64% season mark.

His batting profile shows a .318 BA and .327 BA vs Opp. The model projects 12 Fantasy points against a 6.5 line, creating a +5.5 projection edge. The play carries a 66.78 rating and a +5 spread.

Calculation snapshot: 67.39% Hit Rate | L5 60% | L10 60% | L15 67% | L20 70% | H2H 76% | SZN 64% | BA .318 | BA vs Opp .327 | PROJ 12 | Rating 66.78 | Spread +5

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Harold Castro — OVER 2 HRR — 66.96%

Harold Castro has one of the strongest recent-form profiles among tonight's batter props.

He's sitting at 100% L5, 60% L10, 53% L15, and 70% L20, with a 67% H2H rate and a 62% season hit rate.

His batting numbers also support the matchup: .334 BA and .315 BA vs Opp. The model projects 3 HRR against a line of 2, giving the play a +1 projection edge. The overall rating is 67.47, with a +1 spread.

Calculation snapshot: 66.96% Hit Rate | L5 100% | L10 60% | L15 53% | L20 70% | H2H 67% | SZN 62% | BA .334 | BA vs Opp .315 | PROJ 3 | Rating 67.47 | Spread +1

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Ariel Jurado — OVER 6 HA — 69.05%

Ariel Jurado's Hits Allowed prop is one of the strongest pitcher-related signals on the board.

The model shows 80% L5, 80% L10, 67% L15, and 65% L20, with a 63% H2H hit rate and a 67% season mark.

The model projects 7 hits allowed against a line of 6, giving the play a +1 projection edge. Its overall rating is 69.08, with a +1 spread.

Calculation snapshot: 69.05% Hit Rate | L5 80% | L10 80% | L15 67% | L20 65% | H2H 63% | SZN 67% | PROJ 7 | Rating 69.08 | Spread +1

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How To Read The Board

The model uses different inputs depending on the type of prop.

Performance

• L5 / L10 / L15 / L20 — hit rate over the player's last 5, 10, 15, and 20 games
• H2H — historical hit rate in the specific matchup
• SZN — season-long hit rate

Batting Matchup Data

For batter props, the board can also show:

• BA — batting average
• BA vs Opp — batting average against the opposing team
• BA vs Pitcher — batting average against the opposing pitcher
• AB / H — historical at-bats and hits against that pitcher

These metrics are not treated as inputs for pitcher props such as PitOuts, Strikeouts, or Hits Allowed.

Model Output

• PROJ — model's projected result
• Rating — overall model rating
• Spread — model projection relative to the listed line

The goal is to find situations where multiple signals agree, rather than relying on one statistic in isolation.

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Full Board

A few things stand out from tonight's model:

• Ariel Jurado's HA OVER is one of the strongest-rated plays. The model gives it a 69.05% hit rate, with 80% L5/L10 performance, a 67% season rate, and a projection of 7 HA against a line of 6.

• Kim Do-yeong continues to show strong matchup support. His Fantasy OVER carries a 67.39% hit rate, backed by a 76% H2H rate, .318 BA, .327 BA vs Opp, and a projection of 12 Fantasy points.

• Harold Castro has an excellent recent-form signal. He's coming off a 100% L5, with a 70% L20 mark and a .334 BA. The model projects 3 HRR against a line of 2.

• The Doosan side has some interesting pitching signals. Zach Logue's PitOuts OVER has a 67.71% hit rate with a 100% L5, while the model projects 17 PitOuts against a 17.5 line. Koo Chang-mo's HA OVER also carries a 65.24% hit rate and a projection of 5.5.

• Anders Tolhurst's PitOuts are worth watching despite the board not labeling the Projection column with an OVER/UNDER designation.

The underlying numbers are strong: 71.39% hit rate, 80% L5, 70% L10, 73% L15, 70% L20, 67% H2H, 73% SZN, with a 17 PitOut projection against 17.5.

📊 See the full visual board on our X: @propzsniper

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Watch The Full Breakdown

Tonight's mini model gives you a look at some of the strongest signals from the full board.

The full KBO model goes deeper — every game, every evaluated prop, player trends, matchup history, batting splits, pitcher data, projections, ratings, and the research behind the numbers.

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This is our free mini model. The full KBO model — every game, every stat, with the research tool — is in Premium.

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